Week 1

Hindsight Bias 6/24

Bios

Chris: ASL, 23, M, Dallas Texas. First became interested in investing during my 9th grade econ class during a
stock simulation over a course of the school year. The first part of the simulation went rough as my partner and
I tried diversifying  our portfolio to make it “robust”, but after coming to the senses that we had no idea what we
were doing, we decided to put all of our money in BRK.A stock. We won by a mile.
Just imagine if we knew what Calls were….

Hunter: 23, M, Dallas Texas. I am an Engineer that has a major ego problem. I was always good in school and
started investing some money freshman year of college in the slow growth stuff like Vanguard total market
indexes. The summers after sophomore and junior years I had internships that paid me enough to start messing
around in the market more and so began my obsession with stocks. Now I work at a job that severely overpays me
and allows me to lose lots of money on OTM calls that I am hoping someday soon may be worth something….

Mission Statement

"Money won't bring you happiness, but its absence will bring you unhappiness"

"I can't guarantee that if you work hard you will be successful but
I can guarantee that if you don't work hard you won't be successful" ----have you tried stocks?

Chinese Tech Stock update :

Per Muddy Waters Research, we’d suggest that you take a look at  

What’d we miss?

- Hunter: Starbucks (NYSE: $SBUX)

I have been looking at Starbucks for my IRA for a while now. I saw the decent dividend and the high dividend
growth rate. My IRA portfolio tends to be more dividend heavy with stocks like AT&T (NYSE: $T) and Whitestone
Reality (NYSE: $WSR). With most of my portfolio at a high dividend rate but a low dividend growth rate I was
excited to add a company with the potential to grow its dividend over the years while I kept it in my IRA. I finally
pulled the trigger and bought roughly $800 worth of starbucks stock on Monday (6/18/18) at $56.99 in what can
only be classified as a colossal mistake. By Wednesday (6/20) it had dropped to around $52 and as of writing this
today on Thursday it has dropped down to around $50.50 with analysts predicting as much as a 16% potential fall
from here. If you are keeping track at home that means I’m already down 11% in just under 4 days of trading with
the potential to lose another 16% according to people that are much smarter than me and spend way more time
analyzing the stock and company. So where do I go from here? I am tempted to try to average down my position
if the stock keeps dropping but with the growth both overall and in same store sales slowing down so much I am
starting to think I should just leave it alone and let DRIP and compounding work their magic and try to invest my
other money in prospects that have more potential for growth. Maybe 40 years down the road when I retire I will
regret not investing more in Starbucks at the current dip or I will be happy that I avoided a loser and
chose to invest in a growth story.

- Chris: NVIDIA (NASDAQ: $NVDA)

The biggest regret in stock I know is discovering NVDA in June 2016 when it was around $45. My roommate at the time,
a Computer Engineering PhD student introduced me to their GPUs as they were used for predominantly gaming reasons,
but with the surge of big data and bitcoin mining, it seemed like an interesting stock that I’ve tracked ever since. It is now
at $260 and I have never bought. Why? Because investor’s psychology, that’s why. I’ll give you a more relevant post next week...

Looking forward

Accenture has been on my radar for quite some time right now as i turned down an offer to work there last year, and having
been pondering my decision to ever since. The

-Fau

Disclaimer:

Neither of us have any idea what we are doing and as such are not people you should be taking financial advice from.
Have fun reading...